Dave Schuler, as he often does, points out something that a lot of the pundit class has missed:
Most commentators seem to believe that as soon as sanctions are lifted Iran will begin selling oil.
At $60 a barrel, what can go wrong? This: Iran has to earn at least twice that to break even on production.
Or, in Schuler’s words:
Iran’s profit-maximizing strategy requires the price of oil to go up or, failing that, for Iran to leave its oil in the ground until it is able to produce oil at a lower cost.
That in turn leads to two observations. First, if Iran sells oil at all it means that it’s absolutely desperate for foreign exchange. And, more disquietingly, expect Iran to foment instability in the Middle East. Stability is bad for business.
That particular business, anyway.