The Finch Formerly Known As Gold

1 November 2004

And the inevitable prediction

Bush 300, Kerry 238

See also Les Jones's Blogger Roundup.

(Update, 3 November, 2:25 pm: Assuming 286-252 holds up, as it appears it will, the Prescience Award goes jointly to James Joyner at Outside the Beltway and Stephen Green at Vodkapundit.)

Posted at 1:07 PM to Political Science Fiction

TrackBack: 2:11 PM, 1 November 2004
» Bloggers, Place Your Bets on the 2004 Elections from Les Jones's Blog
Psychics have an easy job. Just make a bunch of predictions. When you're wrong, keep quiet. When you're right, remind people endlessly. So for the 2004 election I'm keeping track of predictions to see which ones pan out. I'm concentrating on bloggers, ......[read more]

TrackBack: 2:36 PM, 1 November 2004
» So, You Want A Prediction? from Electric Venom
Like most bloggers, I've received a slew of emails asking for my prediction on the presidential winner. Well, ok, maybe not a slew. Two, to be precise. And not really two, at that: both were from the same person, who I'd originally ignored, so he re-......[read more]

TrackBack: 10:00 PM, 1 November 2004
» Election Alert: Blogs of War Prediction from Blogs of War
I have a few different scenarios mapped out and while predictions in this race are risky sitting on the fence isn't much fun. I have a feeling that analysts can throw conventional wisdom out the window for this one. Unfortunately, that's all we really......[read more]

TrackBack: 1:14 AM, 2 November 2004
» My Prediction(s) from RIGHT ON RED >>
Hey, slow down that bandwagon! I wanna hop on board. Here's my prediction, an even 300 for Bush: Here's what I fear. Let's face it folks; it could happen - 299 for Kerry: I want to say Hawaii is going Bush, just for fun, but why pile o......[read more]

TrackBack: 6:01 AM, 2 November 2004
» Passionate Election Predictions from Passionate America
Regular readers of this blog know that I'm betting on Bush. Who do you think will win (Bush, Kerry, or haha a third party candidate) and why? Blogger Predictions: Ramblings' Journal...[read more]

My guess is approximately 3% difference in the popular vote (but likely less) and fewer than 20 electoral votes, both putting Bush in the lead.

I think it will be very close, but much less controversial than before.

Posted by: unimpressed at 2:26 PM on 1 November 2004

Well, three percent should be enough to ward off any controversy, though a few of the True Believers won't accept any figure that doesn't go their way.

Posted by: CGHill at 2:37 PM on 1 November 2004

I like it. Here's hoping.

Posted by: McGehee at 7:55 PM on 1 November 2004

Opinionjournal? You couldn't find one at or some other equally objective source.

You are what you eat I suppose.

The only numbers I'll believe are the ones counted AFTER we've voted, till then... patience grasshopper.

Posted by: bruce at 8:25 PM on 1 November 2004

Bruce, Bruce, Bruce. Pull your head out. This isn't OpinionJournal's estimate; it's their map-creation device. Rather a lot of people have used it to create their own maps, simply because it's handy. (As I write this, the actual OpinionJournal count is 181 R, 153 D, others undetermined; you could have seen that had you cared to do any actual research, but this would have interfered with your hasty cheap shot.)

Now go away or I shall taunt you a second time.

Posted by: CGHill at 8:32 PM on 1 November 2004

Man, I love those backboard-shattering slam-dunks.

Posted by: Vickie at 4:56 AM on 2 November 2004

"The only numbers I'll believe are the ones counted AFTER we've voted"

So Bruce, I gather you DO believe Bush WON the 2000 election?

Posted by: Vickie at 4:58 AM on 2 November 2004

MN but not WI? Possible, but I doubt it. I predict Bush 296. That's every state he won in 2000 (except NH, which I think may be contrarian) plus the states that were extremely close: Iowa, New Mexico, and Wisconsin. Key factors: voters don't trust Kerry on foreign policy, and GOP GOTV.

Details and 2000 data at

For those who are predicting a major swing to Bush: add NH plus the remaining 3 swing states (MI, MN, PA). That's 348. (I'm extremely skeptical of polls in Hawaii, though add 4 if they're on target. I also doubt that NJ is actually in play.)

Posted by: Pajamasphere at 6:08 AM on 2 November 2004

As the man said, the numbers that count are after the vote. :)

Still, I don't think I'm too far off the mark, although regular readers, assuming I have any left, will know that my track record in election bets is not what anyone would call impeccable.

Posted by: CGHill at 7:57 AM on 2 November 2004

Electric donkey-bottom biter!

Posted by: Dan at 9:11 AM on 2 November 2004

I like your map, Charles.

Posted by: David at 3:19 PM on 2 November 2004

Hey Cuz,
we out here in the Aloha State, are very much leaning towards Bush. Don't forget we have every Branch of the Military here to include Coast Guard. I wouldn't be surprised if that Blue Island turns Red before the night is over. We had a HUGE Luau Sunday night with the main speaker being Dick Cheney.

Posted by: Peggy Kenn (Balagia) at 9:48 PM on 2 November 2004

Very nice map. The call was almost perfect except for a few states. We'll see how close the electoral count is going to be.

Posted by: bleedingbrain at 3:49 AM on 3 November 2004

I spent about half an hour playing with this contraption, and every scenario I saw as plausible wound up with Bush in the 290-300 range. (Andy Card, last I heard, was claiming 286.)

Anyway, it's obviously not going to be 300-238, but I'm not unhappy with the results.

Posted by: CGHill at 7:34 AM on 3 November 2004

I'm a total tyro at this. I got very close on the popular vote, but didn't cut it near fine enough on the electoral vote.

Lucky guess, eh?

Posted by: unimpressed at 8:25 AM on 3 November 2004